Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 11.266255 13.189984 15.290369 17.747021 20.534320 23.591149 27.189650
2025-01-05 8.239724 10.847486 13.979324 17.984984 22.936161 28.817209 36.289157
2025-01-12 6.247291 9.111939 12.845567 17.991230 24.810179 33.438853 45.069525
2025-01-19 4.919646 7.860138 11.977265 18.025803 26.521931 37.845086 53.851729
2025-01-26 4.335421 7.478110 12.147657 19.373452 30.006076 44.765246 66.411847
2025-02-02 3.767952 6.984390 12.034510 20.228554 32.800058 50.891412 78.294966
2025-02-09 3.303377 6.550230 11.915123 21.004122 35.481709 56.993598 90.514610
2025-02-16 2.783693 5.912176 11.354266 20.977809 36.880334 61.252944 100.277405
2025-02-23 2.279766 5.195728 10.539868 20.403944 37.305419 64.003910 107.889870
2025-03-02 1.841350 4.509363 9.662903 19.588220 37.208839 65.870170 114.185266
2025-03-09 1.570613 4.105369 9.237491 19.499699 38.291263 69.640073 123.639494
2025-03-16 1.320888 3.691015 8.724110 19.173083 38.901019 72.636974 131.981252
2025-03-23 1.214009 3.590752 8.844599 20.097646 41.885619 79.905303 147.933710
2025-03-30 1.069170 3.367604 8.676562 20.438239 43.834122 85.546901 161.539079
2025-04-06 0.922268 3.103366 8.376578 20.471076 45.197929 90.249530 173.817586
2025-04-13 0.798246 2.868365 8.102688 20.518509 46.579818 95.053539 186.518064
2025-04-20 0.773837 2.911826 8.488737 22.026635 50.958409 105.529612 209.691997
2025-04-27 0.720079 2.854657 8.620594 22.981926 54.288427 114.253447 230.161666
2025-05-04 0.666640 2.785150 8.710237 23.847233 57.492172 122.908343 250.906983
2025-05-11 0.580434 2.584575 8.429103 23.818031 58.816824 128.071359 265.527340
2025-05-18 0.483534 2.316112 7.919005 23.178125 58.774992 130.587507 275.362967
2025-05-25 0.393298 2.039035 7.331474 22.267994 58.050606 131.700388 282.591360
2025-06-01 0.340559 1.888126 7.079635 22.169195 59.113693 136.405644 296.836494